• Böttcher, L., D'Orsogna, M. R., &  Chou, T. (2020). Using excess deaths and testing statistics to improve estimates of COVID-19 mortalities. medRxiv:2021.01.10.21249524, arXiv:2101.03467

• N. Antulov-Fantulin, N. Biller-Andorno, L. Böttcher, J. Berezowski, C. Burton-Jeangros, K. Blanchet, M. Clausin, G. Escher, A. Flahault, K. Fukuda, D. Helbing, P. D. Jaffé, P. Jørgensen, Y. Kaspiarovich, J. Krishnakumar, R. Lawrence, K. Lee, A. Léger, N. Levrat, R. Martischang, C. Morel, D. Pittet, M. Stauffer, F. Tediosi, F. Vanackere, J.-D. Vassalli, D. Wernli, G. Wolff, O. Young, Building societal resilience to COVID-19 and future pandemics: a synthesis of the literature and a governance framework for action (2021)

• Böttcher, L., Xia, M., &  Chou, T. (2020). Why case fatality ratios can be misleading: individual- and population-based mortality estimates and factors influencing them. Phys. Biol. 17, 065003 (2020), arXiv:2003.12032, medRxiv:2020.03.26.20044693

• Böttcher, L., & Antulov-Fantulin, N. (2020). Unifying susceptible-infected-recovered processes on networks. Phys. Rev. Research 2, 033121 (2020), arXiv:2002.11765

• Antulov-Fantulin, Nino, and Lucas Böttcher. "On the accuracy of short-term COVID-19 fatality forecasts." arXiv preprint arXiv:2107.09891 (2021).

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In the news:

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• Are COVID-19 Mortality Rates Really What They Seem?, AirTalk 89.3 KPCC

• Understanding the dynamics of the epidemic, ETH news

• Italy's Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported,available on WSJ online or MSN

• Hans Gersbach and Jan Egbert-Sturm, The Schweizfonds: A Second Relief Pillar of 100 Billion Francs

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Previous publications:

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• Brockmann, D., & Helbing, D. (2013). The hidden geometry of complex, network-driven contagion phenomena. Science, 342(6164), 1337-1342.

• Antulov-Fantulin, N., Lančić, A., Šmuc, T., Štefančić, H., & Šikić, M. (2015). Identification of patient zero in static and temporal networks: Robustness and limitations. Physical Review Letters, 114(24), 248701

• Tolić, D., Kleineberg, K. K., & Antulov-Fantulin, N. (2018). Simulating SIR processes on networks using weighted shortest paths. Scientific Reports, 8(1), 1-10.

• Böttcher, L., Woolley-Meza, O., Araújo, N. A., Herrmann, H. J., & Helbing, D. (2015). Disease-induced resource constraints can trigger explosive epidemics. Scientific Reports, 5(1), 1-11.

• Böttcher, L., Andrade, J. S., & Herrmann, H. J. (2017). Targeted Recovery as an Effective Strategy against Epidemic Spreading. Scientific Reports, 7(1), 1-7.

• Böttcher, L., Nagler, J., & Herrmann, H. J. (2017). Critical behaviors in contagion dynamics. Physical Review Letters, 118(8), 088301.

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