
References
Clearly, it is not possible to provide an exhaustive list of references for this topic. Therefore, we will provide a brief overview of relevant references that are of review character (if possible).
-
Mathematical epidemiology:
-
Hethcote H (2000). "The Mathematics of Infectious Diseases"
-
Keeling, Matt J., and Pejman Rohani (2011). ”Modeling infectious diseases in humans and animals”
-
-
Complex networks and statistical physics:
-
Romualdo Pastor-Satorras, Claudio Castellano, Piet Van Mieghem, Alessandro Vespignani, Epidemic processes in complex networks
-
-
Statistics and ML
-
T Hastie, R Tibshirani, J Friedman, "The Elements of Statistical Learning"
-
-
Current outbreak:
-
M. Chinazzi et al., The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, Science 10.1126/science.aba9757 (2020).
-
L. Ferretti et al.,Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing, Science 10.1126/science.abb6936 (2020)
-
And many other papers on COVID-19, see Google Scholar and arXiv
-
Additional comments, references and libraries:
-
Complex network libraries:
-
EU and COVID: https://ec.europa.eu/info/research-and-innovation/research-area/health-research-and-innovation/coronavirus-research_en
-
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html
-
http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/health-emergencies/coronavirus-covid-19
-
Effective containment explains subexponential growth in recent confirmed COVID-19 cases in China,https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6492/742
-
Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries, https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/handle/10044/1/77731
-
Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19,https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0869-5
-
Respiratory virus shedding in exhaled breath and efficacy of face masks, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2
-
What the cruise-ship outbreaks reveal about COVID-19,
-
Lofgren et al., “Opinion: Mathematical models: A key tool for outbreak response”
-
S. V. Scarpino, G. Petri, "On the predictability of infectious disease outbreaks"
-
Is It Possible to Predict the Next Pandemic? https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/10/pandemic-prediction-challenge/543954/
-
For more information on limitations of real-time epidemic forecasting, see
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/mar/27/google-flu-trends-predicting-flu