References

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Clearly, it is not possible to provide an exhaustive list of references for this topic. Therefore, we will provide a brief overview of relevant references that are of review character (if possible). 

• Mathematical epidemiology:

  • Hethcote H (2000). "The Mathematics of Infectious Diseases"

  • Keeling, Matt J., and Pejman Rohani (2011). ”Modeling infectious diseases in humans and animals”

• Complex networks and statistical physics:

  • Romualdo Pastor-Satorras, Claudio Castellano, Piet Van Mieghem, Alessandro Vespignani, Epidemic processes in complex networks

• Statistics and ML

  • T Hastie, R Tibshirani, J Friedman, "The Elements of Statistical Learning"

• Current outbreak:

  • M. Chinazzi et al., The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, Science 10.1126/science.aba9757 (2020).

  • L. Ferretti et al.,Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing, Science 10.1126/science.abb6936 (2020)

  • And many other papers on COVID-19, see Google Scholar and arXiv

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Additional comments, references and libraries:

• Complex network libraries:

  • http://networkx.github.io

  • https://igraph.org

  • https://graph-tool.skewed.de

  • Diffusion Library, https://ndlib.readthedocs.io/en/latest/

• EU and COVID: https://ec.europa.eu/info/research-and-innovation/research-area/health-research-and-innovation/coronavirus-research_en

• https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html

• http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/health-emergencies/coronavirus-covid-19

• Effective containment explains subexponential growth in recent confirmed COVID-19 cases in China,https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6492/742

• Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries, https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/handle/10044/1/77731

• Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19,https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0869-5

• Respiratory virus shedding in exhaled breath and efficacy of face masks, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2

• What the cruise-ship outbreaks reveal about COVID-19,

  • https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00885-w

• Lofgren et al., “Opinion: Mathematical models: A key tool for outbreak response” 

• S. V. Scarpino, G. Petri, "On the predictability of infectious disease outbreaks"

• https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/zukunft-technologie/1500-projekte-sind-beim-groesstem-hackathon-der-welt-entstanden-li.79615

• Is It Possible to Predict the Next Pandemic? https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/10/pandemic-prediction-challenge/543954/

• For more information on limitations of real-time epidemic forecasting, see

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/mar/27/google-flu-trends-predicting-flu